Polybius business model reflects our expecta�on of the near-term performance of the company.
The analysis focuses on milestones 1 through 3, targe�ng EU-28 market only. This is driven by our
familiarity with the region and the favorable regulatory framework. We are, nonetheless,
convinced of the further upside presented by the market outside of EU-28 and will be looking to
tapping it in the coming years.
We have strived to be prudent in our forecasts. We believe there is significant upside across the
portrayed market growth as well as the fees, par�cularly so with P2P lending, card and payment
services and cryptocurrency por�olio fees. We view the numbers herein as a prudent (as opposed
to a full) equity case aimed at illustra�ng the robustness of the business model.
We are not publishing the mone�za�on analysis of the DigitalPass and SME Financial
Marketplace. One of the reasons is that it would inevitably require disclosure of our technology
and reference to the subsequent patents. Furthermore, for compe��ve reasons, we have decided
to shy away from disclosing the workings of DigitalPass and SME Financial Marketplace. We are
convinced this will be a unique technology capable of having a very strong impact on our daily life
and look forward to disclosing further details in the future.
Under this milestone, Polybius would be adop�ng an intermediary model with the two following flagship products: •E-commerce payment agent: ac�ng as an intermediary across payment systems (gateway and risk management) focusing on small and medium online merchants (“SME” merchants) •P2P loans: facilita�ng household loans on peer-to-peer basis •Investment por�olios: facilita�ng asset flows to cryptocurrency investment por�olio managers We believe, we will start with capturing ca 1.25% of EU-28 SME e-commerce payment and P2P household loan markets. Expected fees will be 0.05% of payment volume and 0.40% of loan volume. Furthermore, we expect a significant take-up of cryptocurrency por�olio investment management offering first and foremost amongst our and HashCoins’ users.
This milestone would allow us to operate a “mixed” model whereby we would be able to build out some principal capabili�es while keeping an agent role on a series of services: •E-commerce payment agent: development of full payment pla�orm which in addi�on to gateway and risk management services, would also offer a series of value-added services (collec�on, currency conversion etc) as well as processing •Card payments: ac�ng through a BIN member in issuing payment cards •P2P loans: More expanded loan offering than in Milestone #1 with us offering both household loans as well as credit to SMEs (e.g. working capital loans through companies opera�ng over our payment pla�orm) •Investment por�olios: own cryptocurrency por�olio management opera�ons We believe, we will be star�ng with ca. 1.15% of EU-28 SME e-commerce payment and card payment market. Star�ng point is lower than in case of intermediary role as addi�onal �me is required to develop trust between our own pla�orm and the users. Once the trust is established and the product proves itself, we expect our market share to grow by ca 0.30% per annum. Expected fees will be 0.10% on e-commerce payments and 0.15% on cards. Higher ini�al budget would allow us to expand a lot more aggressively and consequently start off with ca 1.44% of the relevant P2P market, growing therea�er. We expect the fees to s�ll remain around 0.40%. On the cryptocurrency por�olios, we would expect higher fees as in addi�on to the management fees, we would also be en�tled to performance fees. Prudently, we es�mate those to be ca 5% all-in per annum.
We expect this milestone to allow us to maximize the breadth of our product offering. However, we s�ll expect to be opera�ng a mixed model offering some of the products in the agent and some in the principal capacity: •E-commerce payment agent: development of full payment pla�orm which in addi�on to gateway and risk management services, would also offer a series of value-added services (collec�on, currency conversion etc) as well as processing •Card payments: direct card scheme membership •P2P loans: More expanded loan offering than in Milestone #1 with us offering both household loans as well as credit to SMEs (e.g. working capital loans through companies opera�ng over our payment pla�orm) •Investment por�olios: own cryptocurrency por�olio management opera�ons •Deposits: as a Trusted Third Party under PSD2 and eIDAS we expect to be in a posi�on to receive and aggregate user account data across mul�ple banks. We expect to add value by op�mizing users alloca�on of deposits as well as facilitate deposits with addi�onal counterpar�es in a fiduciary capacity. This will allow us to operate across the pla�orms of tradi�onal banks and serve as a one-stop-shop for deposits. Finally, this milestone will allow for a higher marke�ng budget and result in faster growth of the business. Milestone #3: raise of USD 6’000’000 Euro millions unless otherwise stated Source: OECD, ECB, Eurostat, Polybius analysis. Comission revenue from e-commerce related payments 2017 2018 2019 2020 0.00 4.55 6.15 7.89 Comission revenue from card payments 0.00 50.22 65.00 80.86 Household P2P loan commission revenue 0.00 9.03 10.93 12.88 Total revenues across business lines 0.00 70.27 91.75 115.67 Opera�ng profit margin NM 36.08% 36.07% 36.04% Opera�ng pro� 0.00 25.36 33.09 41.69 Opera�ng profit (USD millions) 0.00 28.40 37.06 46.69 Opera�ng profit for token holders 5.68 7.41 9.34 Cumula�ve opera�ng profit for token holders SME P2P loan commission revenue 0.00 5.83 7.34 8.81 Cryptocurrency investment por�olio commission fees 0.00 0.30 1.03 2.89 Depositary work 0.00 0.35 1.30 2.35 5.68 13
Milestone #3: raise of USD 6’000’000 In this instance, we expect to start with capturing at least 2.00% of the e-commerce payment and card payment market. E-commerce payment commissions are expected to be at 0.10% and the credit card fees will be ca. 0.30%. P2P loan commissions are expected on the order of 0.40% with the star�ng market share of ca 2.50%. On the cryptocurrency por�olios, we would expect higher fees as in addi�on to the management fees, we would also be en�tled to performance fees. Conserva�vely, we es�mate those to be ca 5% all-in per annum. Lastly, we expect the commission on deposit-related services to be delivering a commission of ca 0.015% of the amounts touched by us. The above Milestones will be pursued so to have a posi�ve marginal cost-to-revenue balance, insourcing the ac�vi�es along with the development of the customers por�olio and of the related revenue streams on each single business line. Opera�onal costs will be tailored to the development of the revenues.
website : https://polybius.io/#company
Under this milestone, Polybius would be adop�ng an intermediary model with the two following flagship products: •E-commerce payment agent: ac�ng as an intermediary across payment systems (gateway and risk management) focusing on small and medium online merchants (“SME” merchants) •P2P loans: facilita�ng household loans on peer-to-peer basis •Investment por�olios: facilita�ng asset flows to cryptocurrency investment por�olio managers We believe, we will start with capturing ca 1.25% of EU-28 SME e-commerce payment and P2P household loan markets. Expected fees will be 0.05% of payment volume and 0.40% of loan volume. Furthermore, we expect a significant take-up of cryptocurrency por�olio investment management offering first and foremost amongst our and HashCoins’ users.
This milestone would allow us to operate a “mixed” model whereby we would be able to build out some principal capabili�es while keeping an agent role on a series of services: •E-commerce payment agent: development of full payment pla�orm which in addi�on to gateway and risk management services, would also offer a series of value-added services (collec�on, currency conversion etc) as well as processing •Card payments: ac�ng through a BIN member in issuing payment cards •P2P loans: More expanded loan offering than in Milestone #1 with us offering both household loans as well as credit to SMEs (e.g. working capital loans through companies opera�ng over our payment pla�orm) •Investment por�olios: own cryptocurrency por�olio management opera�ons We believe, we will be star�ng with ca. 1.15% of EU-28 SME e-commerce payment and card payment market. Star�ng point is lower than in case of intermediary role as addi�onal �me is required to develop trust between our own pla�orm and the users. Once the trust is established and the product proves itself, we expect our market share to grow by ca 0.30% per annum. Expected fees will be 0.10% on e-commerce payments and 0.15% on cards. Higher ini�al budget would allow us to expand a lot more aggressively and consequently start off with ca 1.44% of the relevant P2P market, growing therea�er. We expect the fees to s�ll remain around 0.40%. On the cryptocurrency por�olios, we would expect higher fees as in addi�on to the management fees, we would also be en�tled to performance fees. Prudently, we es�mate those to be ca 5% all-in per annum.
We expect this milestone to allow us to maximize the breadth of our product offering. However, we s�ll expect to be opera�ng a mixed model offering some of the products in the agent and some in the principal capacity: •E-commerce payment agent: development of full payment pla�orm which in addi�on to gateway and risk management services, would also offer a series of value-added services (collec�on, currency conversion etc) as well as processing •Card payments: direct card scheme membership •P2P loans: More expanded loan offering than in Milestone #1 with us offering both household loans as well as credit to SMEs (e.g. working capital loans through companies opera�ng over our payment pla�orm) •Investment por�olios: own cryptocurrency por�olio management opera�ons •Deposits: as a Trusted Third Party under PSD2 and eIDAS we expect to be in a posi�on to receive and aggregate user account data across mul�ple banks. We expect to add value by op�mizing users alloca�on of deposits as well as facilitate deposits with addi�onal counterpar�es in a fiduciary capacity. This will allow us to operate across the pla�orms of tradi�onal banks and serve as a one-stop-shop for deposits. Finally, this milestone will allow for a higher marke�ng budget and result in faster growth of the business. Milestone #3: raise of USD 6’000’000 Euro millions unless otherwise stated Source: OECD, ECB, Eurostat, Polybius analysis. Comission revenue from e-commerce related payments 2017 2018 2019 2020 0.00 4.55 6.15 7.89 Comission revenue from card payments 0.00 50.22 65.00 80.86 Household P2P loan commission revenue 0.00 9.03 10.93 12.88 Total revenues across business lines 0.00 70.27 91.75 115.67 Opera�ng profit margin NM 36.08% 36.07% 36.04% Opera�ng pro� 0.00 25.36 33.09 41.69 Opera�ng profit (USD millions) 0.00 28.40 37.06 46.69 Opera�ng profit for token holders 5.68 7.41 9.34 Cumula�ve opera�ng profit for token holders SME P2P loan commission revenue 0.00 5.83 7.34 8.81 Cryptocurrency investment por�olio commission fees 0.00 0.30 1.03 2.89 Depositary work 0.00 0.35 1.30 2.35 5.68 13
Milestone #3: raise of USD 6’000’000 In this instance, we expect to start with capturing at least 2.00% of the e-commerce payment and card payment market. E-commerce payment commissions are expected to be at 0.10% and the credit card fees will be ca. 0.30%. P2P loan commissions are expected on the order of 0.40% with the star�ng market share of ca 2.50%. On the cryptocurrency por�olios, we would expect higher fees as in addi�on to the management fees, we would also be en�tled to performance fees. Conserva�vely, we es�mate those to be ca 5% all-in per annum. Lastly, we expect the commission on deposit-related services to be delivering a commission of ca 0.015% of the amounts touched by us. The above Milestones will be pursued so to have a posi�ve marginal cost-to-revenue balance, insourcing the ac�vi�es along with the development of the customers por�olio and of the related revenue streams on each single business line. Opera�onal costs will be tailored to the development of the revenues.
website : https://polybius.io/#company
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